Thwaites: The Future of Thwaites Glacier and its Contribution to Sea-level Rise | 17 505

Opportunity Information: Apply for 17 505

The grant opportunity titled "Thwaites: The Future of Thwaites Glacier and its Contribution to Sea-level Rise" is a joint research program led by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) in partnership with the United Kingdom's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Its central purpose is to reduce major scientific uncertainty about how much ice West Antarctica, and especially Thwaites Glacier, could lose in the coming decades through centuries, and what that loss would mean for future sea-level rise. The program is positioned as a response to high-level international and U.S. scientific priorities, including SCAR's Horizon Scan and a U.S. National Academies report that identifies improved prediction of West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss as the top Antarctic research need and flags Thwaites as an area of particular concern.

The opportunity is motivated by clear observational evidence that ice loss in parts of West Antarctica has been accelerating since the 1990s. Satellite records show that ocean-driven changes have intensified melting and retreat across five neighboring glacier catchments that together drain more than one third of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The pace of ice loss in this region doubled over a six-year span and is now estimated to contribute roughly 10 percent of global sea-level rise. While Pine Island Glacier has been a major focus of earlier UK and NSF work and has recently shown the most rapid losses, newer studies highlight Thwaites Glacier as the larger near-to-long-term risk. The concern is not just that Thwaites is already changing quickly, but that it has the potential to trigger major, potentially irreversible shifts on societally relevant timescales, spanning from the next few decades out to centuries.

From a research and outcomes standpoint, the program aims to substantially improve projections at two key horizons: near-term, decadal-scale forecasts and longer-term projections extending from a century to multiple centuries. This dual emphasis reflects the need to support both immediate planning and deeper understanding of long-run ice-sheet behavior. A major theme is the stability of marine ice sheets, meaning ice grounded below sea level that can become vulnerable to retreat when warmed ocean water interacts with floating ice shelves and grounding zones. By concentrating effort on Thwaites, the program intends to deliver advances that are not only site-specific but also broadly relevant to understanding how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might respond to ongoing climate and ocean changes.

Another core objective is to strengthen the ice-sheet modeling community's ability to simulate key processes that drive ice loss and translate them into better sea-level projections. In practical terms, this means improving the representation of the physics and interactions that control glacier flow, basal conditions, grounding-line behavior, and ocean-ice interactions, and then using those improvements to narrow the range of plausible future outcomes. The program frames this modeling improvement as essential for reducing uncertainty in sea-level rise estimates, which remain a major challenge in climate risk science because small differences in processes at glaciers like Thwaites can lead to large differences in long-term sea-level contributions.

The opportunity also emphasizes real-world value beyond academic knowledge. Better projections of Thwaites-related sea-level rise are intended to feed into improved coastal risk assessments that communities and governments rely on for adaptation choices and long-range infrastructure planning. In other words, the expected payoff is not only a clearer scientific picture of what Thwaites is likely to do, but also more defensible information for decisions about managing flood risk, designing resilient coastal systems, and planning for future shoreline change.

Administratively, this is a discretionary grant opportunity in the science and technology research and development category, listed under CFDA 47.050. It was created on October 20, 2016, with an original closing date of March 1, 2017. The awarding agency is NSF, and the program anticipated around 8 awards, with an award ceiling of $4,000,000. Eligibility is indicated as "Others" with additional clarification referenced in the full solicitation, which typically signals that applicants should consult the official eligibility language for details on which organizations, collaborations, or investigator teams qualify, especially given the joint NSF-NERC structure and the international coordination implied by the program.

• The National Science Foundation in the science and technology and other research and development sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Thwaites: The Future of Thwaites Glacier and its Contribution to Sea-level Rise" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 47.050.
• This funding opportunity was created on Oct 20, 2016.
• Applicants must submit their applications by Mar 01, 2017. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $4,000,000.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 8 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).

Apply for 17 505

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